Fiscal expansion in response to successive shocks supported growth but raised public debt. The ECF arrangement approved in 2024, with the second review completed in June 2025, supports inclusive growth, debt sustainability, and structural reforms. Economic activity is expected to remain resilient despite a temporary slowdown in 2026 due to spillovers from the Middle East war. The outlook is subject to elevated downside risks from the challenging international environment, security threats, financial vulnerabilities, social tensions, and climate risks, which could hinder reform implementation.