Ghana: Financial Sector Resilience to a Severe Gold Price Shock

This paper assesses the resilience of Ghana's banking system and the Bank of Ghana to severe and persistent gold price shocks. Despite stronger post-DDEP (Domestic Debt Exchange Program) capitalization, profitability, and liquidity, Ghana's dependence on gold exports exposes the financial system to commodity price volatility through exchange rate, inflation, fiscal, sovereign risk, and bank balance-sheet channels. Stress tests suggest that banks remain broadly resilient at the aggregate level, although weaker institutions remain vulnerable. By contrast, gold price shocks have a more pronounced near-term impact on central bank equity, underscoring the need for strong capital buffers, bank resolution, and commodity-risk-aware recapitalization planning.